{"id":12696,"date":"2025-07-07T01:03:38","date_gmt":"2025-07-07T01:03:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/krogragg.com\/?p=12696"},"modified":"2025-07-07T01:03:38","modified_gmt":"2025-07-07T01:03:38","slug":"op-ed-next-two-months-are-critical-for-stability-in-the-mideast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/krogragg.com\/?p=12696","title":{"rendered":"Op-Ed: Next Two Months are Critical for Stability in the Mideast"},"content":{"rendered":"

Op-Ed: Next Two Months are Critical for Stability in the Mideast
\n \t

\n
<\/BR>
\n
\n \t

\n
<\/BR><\/p>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

The next two months look set to be critical for world stability, offering the prospect of resolution of two global security issues that have caused conflicts and problems for decades. The two issues are linked, and neither looks likely to be solved in isolation.<\/p>\n

A 60-day ceasefire in Gaza leading to negotiations for a permanent settlement is on the table, from which Israel needs an end to threats to its national security and Palestinians seek a broader solution to their quest for statehood. At the same time, the United States hopes to continue the negotiations over nuclear issues and regional expansionism with Iran. Even limited success in either of these two negotiations could have far-reaching impacts on global trade, opening up the prospect of economic cooperation across what were once barriers, the development of new markets, and the establishment of previously impossible trading routes. Success might even provide momentum for a resolution of the war in Ukraine as well.<\/p>\n

But while hopes are high that settlements can be achieved, there is significant risk that the conflict with Iran in particular could flare up again.<\/p>\n

Notwithstanding the combined attacks on Iran\u2019s nuclear facilities, there can be no certainty that Iran has lost the ability to produce a crude nuclear weapon,\u00a0since it may still have stocks of already-enriched uranium and\u00a0hidden manufacturing facilities that survived. Hardliners in Iran are pressing for an acceleration of their nuclear program.<\/p>\n

Iran retains a formidable stockpile of ballistic missiles. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has claimed that half of Iran\u2019s ballistic missile launchers have been destroyed. Of a stockpile of about 3,000 ballistic missiles, Iran managed to fire 500 missiles\u00a0and Israel destroyed a further 1,000, leaving an estimated inventory of 1,500.<\/p>\n

Iran also improved ballistic missile accuracy as the war progressed, having initially kept more advanced systems like the Haj Qassem in reserve. At peak, 16% of Iranian missiles penetrated Israeli air defenses. Five military and 36 civilian targets in Israel were hit over the 12 days – never at sufficient tempo to suppress Israeli military activity, but a significant result nonetheless.<\/p>\n

This limited Iranian success\u00a0and the remaining missile inventory\u00a0indicate\u00a0that if war were\u00a0resumed, the residual Iranian ballistic missile capability would pose a problem. Israeli attacks on Iran also suggest that the Iranian missile armory was larger than had been generally appreciated outside intelligence circles. About 25 Iranian missile sites had been identified in open source listings before the conflict began. But with Israeli bloggers and Ministry of Defense reveals of attacks on previously unknown sites, the Iranians seem to have been maintaining at least 36 such sites, of which the Israelis are known to have attacked at least 26.<\/p>\n

Known IRGC Ballistic Missile Sites unmasked by the 12-Day War (CJRC)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

CLUSTER<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

LOCATION\/SITE<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

LATITUDE<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

LONGITUDE<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

HIT<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

NEWLY LOCATED<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Abhar (independent site?)<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

36.086210N<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

49.227040E<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00fc<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00fc<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Bandar Abbas Area Independent Sites<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Bandar Abbas Khorgu<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

27.528789N<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

56.451021E<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Haji Abad<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

28.328772N<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

55.942649E<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Bandar Lengeh<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

26.658735N<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

54.893197E<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Lar<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

27.643131N<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

54.256253E<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Jam\/Bandar Kangam<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

27.794144N<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

52.318042E<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Borujerd (independent site?)<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

33.945160N<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

48.603120E<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00fc<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Dezful Cluster<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Dezful North<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

32.614819N<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

48.331450E<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00fc<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00fc<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Dezful South<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

32.607790N<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

48.323210E<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00fc<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Garmdareh Cluster<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Garmdareh NW<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

35.788410N<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

51.059026E<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Garmdareh NE<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

35.768729N<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

51.085032E<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Eshtehard Missile Depot<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

35.679399N<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

50.434855E<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00fc<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00fc<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Isfahan Cluster<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Isfahan West<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

32.695027N<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

51.430270E<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00fc<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Isfahan South\/Baharestan<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

32.459346N<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

51.714619E<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Mobarakeh<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

32.342160N<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

51.664470E<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00fc<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00fc<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Kangavar (independent site?)<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

34.439340N<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

47.877860E<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00fc<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00fc<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Kashan (independent site?)<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

34.093362N<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

51.255711E<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00fc<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Kerman (independent site?)<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

30.239153N<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

56.851713E<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Kermanshah Cluster<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Panj Peleh\/Bakhtaran<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

34.360500N<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

47.228508E<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00fc<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Konesh Canyon<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

34.389521N<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

47.181043E<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Kermanshah South<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

34.394788N<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

47.222654E<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Kermanshah NE<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

34.525045N<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

47.361183E<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Kermanshah NW<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

34.439950N<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

47.187934E<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Ghazanchi<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

34.479430N<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

47.015580E<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00fc<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00fc<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Kamijeh<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

34.522583N<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

47.362406E<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00fc<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00fc<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Khorramabad Cluster<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Khorramabad Imam Ali NW<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

33.581276N<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

48.181536E<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00fc<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Khorramabad Imam Ali SE<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

33.564324N<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

48.217238E<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Khorramabad Imam Ali Main<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

33.552360N<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

48.214160E<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00fc<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00fc<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Qom (independent site?)<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

34.943853N<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

50.763649E<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00fc<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Shiraz Cluster<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Shiraz NW<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

29.726310N<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

52.558080E<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00fc<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Shiraz North<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

29.707720N<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

52.590671E<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00fc<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Tabriz Cluster<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Tabriz North\/Ammnad<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

38.251449N<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

46.119187E<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00fc<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Tabriz South<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

37.977313N<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

46.176606E<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Yazd (independent site?)<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

31.802441N<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

54.295549E<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Zanjan (independent site?)<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

36.746500N<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

48.435190E<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00fc<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00fc<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

One can conclude that Iran appears to have sufficient residual capability to resume a missile war if hardliners within the Iranian political leadership get their way. To this threat must be added the risk of a closure of the Straits of Hormuz, for which the Iranians have made some military preparations by training for the task and forward-deploying stocks.<\/p>\n

The Iranians may have the capability to resume warfare. But they now also know that Israel has both proven political will and intent –\u00a0as well as the capability –\u00a0to attack again if it perceives\u00a0its national security to be under threat.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\t

\n
<\/BR><\/p>\n

\t

\n
<\/BR>
\nGo to maritime executive<\/a>
\n \t

\n
<\/BR><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Op-Ed: Next Two Months are Critical for Stability in the Mideast \u00a0 The next two months look set to be critical for world stability, offering the prospect of resolution of two global security issues that have caused conflicts and problems for decades. The two issues are linked, and neither looks likely to be solved in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[59],"class_list":["post-12696","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-maritime-executive","tag-maritime-executive"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/krogragg.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12696"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/krogragg.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/krogragg.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/krogragg.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/krogragg.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=12696"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/krogragg.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12696\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/krogragg.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=12696"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/krogragg.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=12696"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/krogragg.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=12696"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}