China’s Victory Day Parade: A Tale of Two Audiences
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The twin messages from the spectacle that unfolded in Tiananmen Square on September 3 could not be missed. China\u2019s military parade, watched over by\u00a0Xi Jinping as he stood shoulder-to-shoulder with Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un\u00a0to commemorate the 80th anniversary of Japan\u2019s surrender in the Second World War, was carefully calibrated for distinctly different audiences at home and abroad.<\/p>\n
For domestic consumption, the parade served as a powerful reassurance during uncertain times, particularly around the economy. The helicopters flying above the display of military might carried banners proclaiming\u00a0\u201cJustice shall prevail\u201d, \u201cPeace shall prevail\u201d, and \u201cPeople shall prevail\u201d\u00a0as a promise that China\u2019s rise remains inexorable despite Western containment efforts.<\/p>\n
Crucially, the parade allowed Xi to demonstrate that China isn\u2019t isolated despite American pressure. The presence of\u00a026 foreign leaders, down from the 30 who attended in 2015, still projected an image of diplomatic vitality. For Chinese citizens bombarded with news about trade restrictions and technology bans, seeing their president flanked by fellow world leaders was intended to offer comfort that China maintains meaningful international partnerships.<\/p>\n
The international messaging, however, operated on an entirely different frequency. The\u00a0unprecedented public alignment of Xi, Putin, and Kim\u00a0wasn\u2019t subtle \u2013 it was calculated. This visual representation of what some analysts term the \u201caxis of upheaval\u201d sent an unmistakable signal that China has options beyond Western engagement. The timing, coming as US President Donald Trump pursues aggressive trade policies toward China, transformed the parade into a geopolitical statement about alternative world orders.<\/p>\n
The military hardware on display carried specific messages for different international audiences. The\u00a0DF-61 intercontinental ballistic missiles\u00a0spoke directly to American defense planners, while the Yingji-series hypersonic anti-ship missiles \u2013 tested against mock US aircraft carriers \u2013 delivered pointed warnings about China\u2019s anti-access capabilities in the Indo-Pacific. The revelation of undersea drones and cyber warfare units signalled China\u2019s commitment to asymmetric capabilities that could neutralize traditional American advantages.<\/p>\n
But not every message could be controlled. The\u00a0conspicuous absence of Indian Prime Minister Modi, despite his presence in China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, highlighted the parade\u2019s politically charged nature. Japan\u2019s\u00a0reported efforts to discourage attendance, and the subsequent Chinese protest, underscored how competing historical narratives continue to shape contemporary regional dynamics.<\/p>\n
The subsequent invocation of shared wartime history suggests Beijing recognizes the need to balance its new alignments with maintaining workable relations with Washington.<\/p>\n
The parade sought to appeal to the Global South. By framing the event as anti-fascist rather than anti-Western, and by securing attendance from leaders across Africa, Asia, and Latin America, though not pursuing formal alliances as its principle, China positioned itself as leading a coalition of nations seeking alternatives to Western hegemony while maintaining its principle of non-alliance partnerships rather than formal military blocs. The presence of leaders such as\u00a0Myanmar\u2019s Min Aung Hlaing and Zimbabwe\u2019s Emmerson Mnangagwa\u00a0\u2013 both isolated by Western sanctions \u2013 reinforced China\u2019s role as patron to regimes marginalized by the existing international order.<\/p>\n
Xi\u2019s declaration that \u201cthe Chinese nation is never intimidated by any bullies\u201d gave voice to the divergent messaging strategies. Domestically, this rhetoric taps into the narrative of China suffering centuries of humiliation, rallying nationalist sentiment around the Chinese Communist Party\u2019s leadership. Internationally, it signals China\u2019s willingness to confront what it perceives as American aggression, even at the risk of further deteriorating relations. Rather than seeking to reassure international audiences about China\u2019s peaceful rise \u2013 the dominant narrative of the previous decade \u2013 Beijing now appears comfortable projecting strength even at the cost of heightened tensions. The prominence given to the DF-5C, alongside China\u2019s\u00a0public acknowledgement of its nuclear modernization\u00a0after years of obfuscation, reflects China\u2019s calculation that its economic leverage and military capabilities have reached a threshold where accommodation with the West is no longer essential.<\/p>\n
Yet this dual messaging strategy carries inherent risks. The domestic promise of inevitable triumph may prove difficult to sustain if China\u2019s economic challenges deepen. Internationally, the explicit alignment with Russia and North Korea may accelerate the very containment China seeks to avoid, pushing fence-sitting nations towards American partnerships. Trump\u2019s response,\u00a0accusing the three leaders of \u201cconspiring against the United States\u201d\u00a0while at the same time reaffirming his \u201cvery good relationship\u201d with Xi, exemplifies the complex reactions Beijing\u2019s assertiveness generates.<\/p>\n
This complexity deepened during Trump and Xi\u2019s 19 September phone call, where both leaders\u00a0emphasized\u00a0that the United States and China had fought together as allies in the Second World War \u2013 a historical reminder that seemed to deliberately contrast with the 3 September parade\u2019s display of alternative partnerships. The\u00a0parade\u00a0sought to portray China as unapologetically assertive abroad while reassuringly confident at home. Yet the subsequent invocation of shared wartime history suggests Beijing recognizes the need to balance its new alignments with maintaining workable relations with Washington.<\/p>\n
As Beijing continues navigating between these sometimes contradictory imperatives, the effectiveness of this messaging strategy will largely determine whether China\u2019s rise continues to challenge or ultimately upends the existing international order. For policymakers observing from capitals worldwide, understanding these divergent messages \u2013 from parade-ground assertions of new partnerships to phone-call reminders of old ones \u2013 isn\u2019t merely academic, it is essential for anticipating China\u2019s future trajectory.<\/p>\n
Sophie Wushuang Yi is a Postdoctoral Teaching Fellow at Schwarzman College, Tsinghua University, specializing in international relations, military and strategic studies, and China\u2019s foreign policy.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n \t
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