Retailers Continue to Front-Load Imports into U.S. Ports
\n \t
\n
<\/BR>
\n
\n \t
\n
<\/BR><\/p>\n
\nRetailers are continuing to front-load their imports which is driving up the volumes seen at major U.S. ports. The National Retail Federation in its monthly read on container volumes expects the rush to get merchandise into the country will continue in part started by the fear of an East Coast port strike and now potential tariffs from the new Trump administration.<\/p>\n
The Global Port Tracker showed an increase in volumes in the fall with November\u2019s container imports up 14.7 percent over a year earlier. It was down slightly from October \u2013 3 percent \u2013 but they also believed retailers were front-loading before the October International Longshoremen\u2019s Association strike on the East Coast.<\/p>\n
The current volumes are coming in significantly ahead of the NRF\u2019s forecast. They believe it is a sign of the continuing front-loading. \u201cImporters had already front-loaded,\u201d said Ben Hackett of Hackett Associates noting it is \u201cgiving a boost to imports in December and early January.\u201d<\/p>\n
Volumes for November are approximately 14 percent over the forecast from the NRF for the month. They report without finalized numbers from the Port of New York New Jersey the TEU volume was 2.17 million containers in November. Further, while the numbers are not finalized for December, NRF believes the volume was 19 percent over its forecast. They are now projecting December at 2.24 million TEU.<\/p>\n
Highlighting last week\u2019s tentative agreement for the new ILA contract, Jonathan Gold, the NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, said, \u201cThe agreement came at the last minute, and retailers were already bringing in spring merchandise early to ensure that they would be well-stocked to serve their customers in case of another disruption, resulting in higher imports. The surge in imports has also been driven by President-elect Trump\u2019s plan to increase tariffs because retailers want to avoid higher costs that will eventually be paid by consumers. The long-term impact on imports remains to be seen.\u201d<\/p>\n
The NRF also raised its forecast for the full year 2024 saying with the recent surge they now expect the year will total 25.6 million TEU. That would be better than a 15 percent increase over 2023 and just 200,000 TEU short of the all-time record in 2021. That is an increase of 700,000 TEU over its previous forecast.<\/p>\n
The momentum is also expected to carry into the first part of 2025. The NRF is calling for 10 percent year-over-year increases in both January and March but a soft February due to the timing this year of the Lunar New Year when many factors in China and Asia are closed. The early forecast sees an 8 percent increase year-over-year for April and nearly a 6 percent increase for May.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
\t
\n
<\/BR><\/p>\n