New Ambrey threat circular says Houthi attack risk continues
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In a new threat circular, maritime risk consultancy Ambrey notes that, in response to the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, the Houthis have announced a cessation of hostilities toward most shipping<\/p>\n
However, notes Ambrey, Israel-owned and -flagged shipping transiting the Bab el-Mandeb <\/a>Strait continues to be targeted..<\/p>\n Merchant vessels continue to be at risk due to the fragility of the ceasefire and the potential for Houthi subjectivity to result singular attacks.<\/p>\n This cessation of hostilities relies on the U.S. and U.K. stopping military operations against the Houthi in Yemen \u2013 and this, notes Ambrey is dependent on Houthi operations against Israel, naval assets, and merchant shipping. (The last reported CENTCOM attack on Houthi installations<\/a> in Yemen occurred January 3.)<\/p>\n A reduction of risk to shipping is assessed almost certain to occur gradually as the Houthi intent is supported by actions \u2013 i.e. no military operations against shipping.<\/p>\n This constitutes the Houthi intent at least until Israel and Hamas reach agreement on the terms of \u201cPhase 2\u201d of the ceasefire and commence its implementation, says Ambrey. \u201cPhase 1\u201d is set to last 42 days from January 19, 2025, with an agreement on \u201cPhase 2\u201d to be reached by week 5. The coming weeks will provide the proof of whether the Houthi follow suit with their stated intent.<\/p>\n