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[By\u00a0Andr\u00e9 Duchiade]<\/em><\/p>\n The trade dispute between the United States and China is weakening the US position in the Chinese market. Tariffs of\u00a0more than 200%\u00a0and mutual\u00a0retaliation\u00a0are also fuelling expectations that Brazilian agribusiness will expand exports to China, while environmentalists warn of increased pressure on forest areas.<\/p>\n Products such as soy, corn, cotton, beef and chicken have the greatest potential for immediate demand growth, say experts. Having already consolidated its position in these markets, Brazil has a competitive advantage, especially given the\u00a0possibility\u00a0of a record grain harvest this year.<\/p>\n \u201cGrowth could be significant in the short term,\u201d Camila Amigo, international analyst at the Brazil-China Business Council (CEBC), tells Dialogue Earth. \u201cThis has already happened in previous moments of the trade war, especially between 2018 and 2019.\u201d<\/p>\n At that time, US President Donald Trump\u2019s first administration\u00a0increased\u00a0tariffs on several countries, especially China, which retaliated. The confrontation affected global production chains and Brazil\u00a0benefitted\u00a0by taking over most of the US soy market in China, according to the US Department of Agriculture.<\/p>\n Now, newly increased foreign demand could raise Brazilian food prices, which have been\u00a0rising\u00a0faster than general inflation since the Covid-19 pandemic. Brazil\u2019s logistical infrastructure for transporting grain, such as its ports, roads and railways, already has\u00a0bottlenecks\u00a0and could face congestion as exports increase, raising freight costs.<\/p>\n In addition, peaks in foreign demand for Brazilian agricultural commodities have historically also led to increased deforestation, especially in the Cerrado and the Amazon, according to Paulo Barreto, a researcher at the Amazon Institute for People and the Environment (Imazon). \u201cIf current conditions continue, if there is more demand, there will tend to be more deforestation again,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n Studies\u00a0and\u00a0analysts\u00a0indicate, for example, that Amazon deforestation jumped between 1995 and 2004 as Brazil\u2019s agricultural areas and cattle population expanded to meet growing international demand for soy and beef.<\/p>\n Brazil already leads in the Chinese market<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n Tensions between the United States and China\u00a0began to rise\u00a0in 2017, during Donald Trump\u2019s first term in office, with the conflict coming to a head in 2018 as the two countries announced a range of tariffs upon each other\u2019s goods. That year, in response to US measures, China\u00a0imposed\u00a0a 25% tariff on 106 American products.<\/p>\n Trade disputes simmered with the\u00a0signing\u00a0of a tentative agreement between Washington and Beijing in 2020, followed by a shift in political focus after Joe Biden took office the following year. Still, his administration largely upheld most Trump-era tariffs, and even\u00a0increased\u00a0rates on some Chinese products. Trump\u2019s return to the presidency in 2025 has since reignited the conflict on a new scale.<\/p>\n Between 2020 and 2024, the United States managed to recover part of its soybean and beef exports to China. However, Brazil had already filled the gap left during the height of the trade war and consolidated its lead in the Chinese market.<\/p>\n In 2018, Brazil overtook the US to become China\u2019s top agricultural supplier, shipping a total of USD 37 billion in goods, according to a\u00a0study\u00a0published this year by research institute Insper Agro Global.<\/p>\n Although other factors may have had an influence, shipments of Brazilian meat and soy to China grew significantly between 2016 \u2013 before the Trump administration\u2019s disputes \u2013 and 2024, according to foreign trade data from the Brazilian government. Meat exports to China in that period increased eightfold, from 165,000 to 1.32 million tonnes, while soy sales increased by 88%.<\/p>\n No one knows how long the trade war will continue, however. The US has been\u00a0stepping up\u00a0its pressure and China has\u00a0signalled\u00a0it will not let up. Even so, representatives of the Brazilian agricultural sector believe the advantage will not last.<\/p>\n \u201cThe comparative advantage is very short term\u2026 We can\u2019t think we\u2019re going to take away the US market in China,\u201d says Ingo Pl\u00f6ger, vice-president of the Brazilian Agribusiness Association. \u201cChina knows where it can hit the United States and is already acting on it, and the United States also knows where it is limiting China. The countries will end up sitting down to negotiate and reach an agreement.\u201d<\/p>\n Greater beef demand could mean more pastures<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n Around\u00a090%\u00a0of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon occurs to open up pastures, according to\u00a0Imazon. Although\u00a070%\u00a0of the beef produced in Brazil is destined for the domestic market, the sudden increase in demand raises the risk of small and medium-sized producers expanding their areas irregularly, according to Niklas Weins, assistant professor at Xi\u2019an Jiaotong-Liverpool University.<\/p>\n \u201cThe expansion of the agricultural frontier is often linked to violence and the invasion of Indigenous or\u00a0quilombola\u00a0lands,\u201d says Weins, the latter referring to descendants of Afro-Brazilian communities established by escaped slaves.<\/p>\n Today, Brazil exports meat to China from steers that are less than 30 months old, with strict health controls. However, the strict requirements on this so-called \u201cboi China\u201d \u2013 beef that meets the necessary Chinese standards \u2013\u00a0do not include\u00a0environmental criteria. As such, cattle may be raised in areas of illegal deforestation. Strong demand from China for beef has also been seen to\u00a0put pressure\u00a0on the Brazilian market by raising prices, encouraging livestock expansion, early slaughter and, in many cases, the advance of cattle into forest areas.<\/p>\n \u201cThe additional demand pushes some people to deforest,\u201d says Barreto of Imazon. \u201cEven if they\u2019re not exporting to China, people start deforesting to meet domestic demand.\u201d<\/p>\n Niklas Weins emphasises that the recent weakening of Brazil\u2019s currency, the real, makes its exports even more competitive. In the first week following Trump\u2019s announcement of so-called \u201creciprocal\u201d tariffs on around 90 trading partners on 2 April, the market reacted with a boost for the dollar and a general fall in other currencies. In the first days of the month, the Brazilian real depreciated by 5.1%, the\u00a0third highest\u00a0rate in the world. \u201cThis will probably have a direct effect on food prices,\u201d he adds.<\/p>\n Light and danger at the end of the tunnel<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n On the other hand, public policies aimed at sustainable agricultural expansion are also gaining momentum, according to Nath\u00e1lia Teles. She works on monitoring Brazil\u2019s pastures at the Remote Sensing and Geoprocessing Laboratory of the Federal University of Goi\u00e1s. Teles cites ways to encourage production in areas that are already open and underused. These are the ABC+ Plan \u2013 a national strategy to promote low-carbon agriculture \u2013 and the National Programme for the Conversion of Degraded Pastures, as well as the use of monitoring technologies.<\/p>\n \u201cDeforestation is becoming less and less economically viable,\u201d says Teles. \u201cThere is greater supervision and legal restrictions, as well as a high environmental and climate cost.\u201d<\/p>\n However, there are still institutional gaps that increase the Amazon\u2019s vulnerability to deforestation, says Paulo Barreto. These include the large extent of public lands not yet designated as protected or belonging to a group \u2013 a situation that encourages illegal occupation and speculation. They also include the absence of an effective cattle-tracking system, and inconsistent actions by public authorities.<\/p>\n The federal government has postponed crucial measures, such as\u00a0regulating\u00a0tracking and\u00a0protecting\u00a0undesignated public forests. In addition, rural credit policies allow finance to\u00a0reach\u00a0producers linked to deforestation. Even institutions like the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES), a shareholder in large meatpacking companies like JBS, have failed to control environmental risks, says Barreto. When contacted by Dialogue Earth, the Ministry of Agriculture did not reply to requests for comment.<\/p>\n Barreto says that deforestation is driven in part by flaws in public policies and the lack of requirements that Chinese beef be traceable. He says this has a solution: \u201cIf China adds an environmental demand to the requirements of the China beef, this could have positive effects, stimulating a more sustainable use of pastures without the need for deforestation.\u201d<\/p>\n Andr\u00e9 Duchiade is a Brazilian journalist and translator based in Rio de Janeiro. He has worked for O Globo and \u00c9poca and his work has been published in several national and international media, including The Scientific American, Suma\u00fama, The Intercept Brasil and Ag\u00eancia P\u00fablica.<\/em><\/p>\n This article appears courtesy of Dialogue Earth and may be found in its original form here<\/a>.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n Top image:\u00a0Agricultural cargo loading at Santos, Brazil (File image Sabino Freitas Correa \/ CC BY SA 4.0<\/a>)<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n \t![\"\"](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Flavia_Milhorance_Wawi_soja_2-scaled.jpg?ssl=1\")
The Wawi Indigenous territory borders a soybean plantation in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. Agricultural expansion has long put pressure on the Amazon forest and its traditional communities (Image: Fl\u00e1via Milhorance \/ Dialogue Earth)<\/em><\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/maritime-executive.com\/media\/images\/article\/Photos\/Charts_Graphs\/Dialogue-Earth-Brazil-exports.png?ssl=1\")
Analysts believe the tariffs will cause Brazilian exports to grow less this time around, due to Brazil\u2019s already consolidated position in the Chinese market. \u201cThe impact of this trade war on Brazil will not be as great as under the first Trump administration,\u201d says Camila Amigo.<\/p>\nCattle bred on open pasture in Cerquilho, in the countryside of S\u00e3o Paulo state. Brazil exports meat to China from steers subject to strict health controls, but largely limited environmental criteria (Image: Dan Agostini \/ Dialogue Earth)<\/em><\/p>\n
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![Sabino Freitas Correa \/ CC BY SA 4.0<\/a>)<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n \t\n <\/BR><\/p>\n \t\n<\/BR>\nGo to maritime executive<\/a>\n \t\n <\/BR><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"U.S.-China Tariff Spat Will Boost Brazil’s Exports – And Deforestation \u00a0 [By\u00a0Andr\u00e9 Duchiade] The trade dispute between the United States and China is weakening the US position in the Chinese market. Tariffs of\u00a0more than 200%\u00a0and mutual\u00a0retaliation\u00a0are also fuelling expectations that Brazilian agribusiness will expand exports to China, while environmentalists warn of increased pressure on forest […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[59],"class_list":["post-8458","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-maritime-executive","tag-maritime-executive"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/krogragg.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8458"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/krogragg.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/krogragg.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/krogragg.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/krogragg.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8458"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/krogragg.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8458\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/krogragg.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8458"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/krogragg.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8458"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/krogragg.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8458"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}](\"https:\/\/commons.wikimedia.org\/wiki\/File:Santos_Port_Brazil_Exports.jpg\"){kind=link}